By-election winners and losers

The campaign signs are coming down, the press conferences are over, the pundits are wrapping up their thoughts and the national media has, for the most part, moved on to other matters.

Bob Rae is the new MP for Toronto-Centre, he won nearly 60 per cent of the vote. The Grits also held ridings in Willowdale and Vancouver but lost one in North Saskatchewan.

Both Liberal and Tory operatives are claiming victory in the night’s affairs. So who really won and who lost?

THE WINNERS

The Green Party

The real winner was the Greens, take a look at the results and just imagine that the Green Party name isn’t there. In the two Toronto ridings can you tell the difference between them, the Conservatives and the NDP? I can’t.

The Conservatives

I may get some heat for saying this but let’s face it if I were a Conservative strategist I would be pretty happy at the nights results. Aside from gaining a seat in Saskatchewan they came so so close to pulling off a Vancouver upset.

Vancouver Quadra is an urban, ethnically diverse riding. It’s the kind of place the Grits should clean up in and the Tories need to take over if they are going to get a majority. As reported in the Globe last December the Conservatives have been reaching out to ethnic minorities in a way they haven’t in previous years. It appears, in Vancouver at least, to be working.

THE LOSERS

Everyone eager for a spring/summer election

The chances of the Liberals defeating Harper's government and forcing a spring/summer election are more remote then ever. At the end of the day it’s Liberals minus one seat, Tories up one, not the rallying cry you want going into an election. Also with Canada sliding into hard times the Grits have more to gain by letting Harper stew in the economic pot. No election until at least the fall.

The NDP

Ouch! In Toronto-Centre, a riding that was depicted as a two-horse race the NDP results were bad to say the least, just barely ahead of the Green Party. In Willowdale they came in dead last place – it wasn’t a good night to be a dipper.

The “unnamed sources” who want Stephane Dion gone

Sorry folks; short of something catastrophic happening Stephane Dion is going to lead the Grits into the next federal election. Three out of four is three out of four. If he had lost in Vancouver or Toronto then we might see some kind of serious (on the record) dump Dion movement appear but for now it doesn’t look like one will be forming in the near future.