Is Bob Rae set to lose on St. Patrick’s Day?

As far as history is concerned NDP candidate El-Farouk Khaki’s run against Liberal Bob Rae in the Toronto-Centre by-election seems a bit quixotic.

The riding has been Liberal at the federal level since 1993 when Bill Graham took it from the Progressive Conservatives.

In 2006, a year that saw many Grit candidates wipe out, Graham won in a landslide, winning more then 30,000 votes while the second place finisher, the NDP’s Michael Shapcott, won just over 14,000.

But the political dynamics will be different this time around. Bill Graham resigned his seat last summer and Stephen Harper called a by-election for March 17, St. Patrick’s Day. The Grits nominated Rae, the former Ontario premier who inspires love or hate depending on who you are talking to.

Making things more complicated for the Liberals is that the New Democrats have become masters at scoring upset by-election victories. Provincially they took Parkdale High-Park and York South-Weston in 2006 and 2007 respectively. At the federal level they recently won the Montreal riding of Outremont, long considered a Liberal fortress.

The Liberals also acknowledge that the date of the by-election, St. Patrick’s Day, will be a factor. ”It’s March 17,” said Rae’s deputy campaign manager Blake Webb, “voter turnout will be an issue.”

Furthermore the NDP’s El-Farouk Khaki is a lawyer who has made media headlines for his work helping refugees who are endangered by their sexual orientation. It’s the kind of background that will serve him well in the riding’s large LBGTQ community.

He’s also fighting a tough campaign against Rae, not being afraid to harshly criticize him. “With Bob Rae and Stephane Dion’s Liberals supporting Stephen Harper who will speak for you?” Beams the headline on his website, it shows an image of Rae and Dion behind a grinning Stephen Harper.

There are other candidates, the Conservatives are running preacher Don Meredith and the Greens are running media producer Chris Tindal but their chances appear remote as their parties finished a distant third and fourth place respectively in 2006.

Khaki’s campaign manager Daryl Finlayson told Global360 that at the end of the day it’s going to be a two horse race.

“It’s becoming very focused,” he said. “It’s going to be (between) El-Farouk Khaki and Bob Rae.”

He also believes that it’s a two-horse race that his candidate can win.

He argues that the Liberals and the Greens have an alliance, with Green leader Elizabeth May vowing not to run a candidate in Stephane Dion’s riding and Dion in turn vowing not to run a candidate against May. Since the Liberals let the last Conservative budget pass Finlayson says it leaves those opposed to Harper in Toronto-Centre with only one choice, his candidate.

“We are the people’s choice, now that the Liberal has propped up the Conservatives we are the only real choice,” he said.

He also brushed aside the argument that the NDP have yet to win in this riding pointing out that in 2006, “we got more votes then the Conservatives and all the (other non-Liberal) parties combined.”

Webb said that Rae’s campaign is well on track. “We’re getting a very positive personal response at the doors,” he said adding that lots of volunteers have signed up. But he added with a note of caution, “in a by-election anything can happen.”